Shutli
Shutli
TOPRAK v1.5

Live xG Analysis

Our Toprak model evaluates every shot using location, angle, distance and pressure data; Expected Goals (xG) quantifies a team's goal-creation quality.

What is xG (Expected Goals)?

xG expresses the probability of a chance resulting in a goal. xG = 0.30 means we expect 30 goals out of 100 attempts from that position on average. 20+ data points like shot location, angle, distance and defensive pressure are evaluated together.

Example positions
  • Penalty spotxG ≈ 0.76
  • Inside boxxG ≈ 0.15 – 0.30
  • Right wing ~25 mxG ≈ 0.04
Why does it matter? xG looks at process quality, not just the outcome. A team generating 2.4 xG but losing 0-1 due to bad luck appears to lose on the scoreboard, yet outperformed in terms of productivity. Our Toprak model tracks this minute by minute throughout the match.

Toprak xG Metrics — What Do They Mean?

6 different dimensions, each offering a different game-state snapshot.

xG Cumulative

Total xG accumulated since kick-off. High value = dominant performance.

Range 0 – 4.0

Rolling 15 Minutes

Instant xG output in the last 15 minutes. High value = team currently applying pressure.

Range 0 – 1.5

Delta 10 Minutes

Change between previous and current 10-minute window. Positive = momentum gaining.

Positive/negative

Composite Score

Toprak model's combined composite score. 70+ = strong pressure signal.

0 – 100 points

Next Goal Score

Which team has higher probability of scoring next? 65+ = high likelihood.

0 – 100 points

Confidence

Toprak model's confidence in its own forecast. 80+ = solid data foundation.

0 – 100 points

Example Case — Reading Through a Finished Match

Auto-selected: highest xG contrast finished match from the last 7 days.

J1 LeagueJapan
Fagiano Okayama
1-1
Urawa
Total xG
2.14vs0.75
Composite
100vs56
xG Trend Throughout the Match
0.61.21.80'15'30'45'60'75'90'
Fagiano OkayamaUrawa

Toprak interpretation: Both teams created similar opportunities in xG terms in this match.

Clear xG gap — one team is significantly superior in productivity.

Live Right Now

5 live matches now
MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro
Orlando City IIOrlando City II
45'1-2
ChattanoogaChattanooga
xG
0.00 - 0.00
Composite
15 - 15
Next Goal
Chattano %0
0.30.60.80'15'30'45'60'75'90'
Toprak is producing xG analysis in 5 live matches — go Premium to see them all.

All Live xG Analysis — Shutli Premium

  • Unlimited live match xG analysis (filter + favorites)
  • Composite + Next Goal + Rolling + Delta complete set
  • 30-day trend + in-match snapshot history
  • League/country filter + favorite team push notifications
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Frequently Asked Questions

xG (Expected Goals) is the probability of a chance resulting in a goal. A high xG value indicates a high chance of the position ending in a goal.