xG Cumulative
Total xG accumulated since kick-off. High value = dominant performance.
Range 0 – 4.0
TOPRAK v1.5
Live xG Analysis
Our Toprak model evaluates every shot using location, angle, distance and pressure data; Expected Goals (xG) quantifies a team's goal-creation quality.
What is xG (Expected Goals)?
xG expresses the probability of a chance resulting in a goal. xG = 0.30 means we expect 30 goals out of 100 attempts from that position on average. 20+ data points like shot location, angle, distance and defensive pressure are evaluated together.
Example positions
- Penalty spotxG ≈ 0.76
- Inside boxxG ≈ 0.15 – 0.30
- Right wing ~25 mxG ≈ 0.04
Why does it matter? xG looks at process quality, not just the outcome. A team generating 2.4 xG but losing 0-1 due to bad luck appears to lose on the scoreboard, yet outperformed in terms of productivity. Our Toprak model tracks this minute by minute throughout the match.
Toprak xG Metrics — What Do They Mean?
6 different dimensions, each offering a different game-state snapshot.
Rolling 15 Minutes
Instant xG output in the last 15 minutes. High value = team currently applying pressure.
Range 0 – 1.5
Delta 10 Minutes
Change between previous and current 10-minute window. Positive = momentum gaining.
Positive/negative
Composite Score
Toprak model's combined composite score. 70+ = strong pressure signal.
0 – 100 points
Next Goal Score
Which team has higher probability of scoring next? 65+ = high likelihood.
0 – 100 points
Confidence
Toprak model's confidence in its own forecast. 80+ = solid data foundation.
0 – 100 points
No live match right now
xG analysis appears here when live matches start. The page updates automatically.
Frequently Asked Questions
xG (Expected Goals) is the probability of a chance resulting in a goal. A high xG value indicates a high chance of the position ending in a goal.